STORMEx 4th European Storms Workshop Programme

IPMA, Lisbon, 8-10 September 2014


Monday 8 September 2014:

12:00-14:00 – Registration

14:00-14:10 – IPMA and Organizing committee: Welcome and introduction to the workshop


Talks 1: Mid-latitude cyclones: climatology and variability (Chair: Alexandre Ramos)

14:10-14:30 – Frauke Feser: Storminess over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe – A Review

14:30-14:50 – Shira Raveh-Rubin: Large-scale surface wind extremes in the Mediterranean

14:50-15:10 – Len Shaffrey: Polar Lows in Reanalyses and Climate Models

15:10-15:30 – Uwe Ulbrich: Skill of probabilistic decadal forecasts with respect to frequencies of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclones and storms

15:30-15:50 – Oscar Martínez-Alvarado: Zonal variations in the systematic forecast error in upper-level Rossby waves


15:50-16:30 Coffee/tea and cakes and POSTER session


Talks 2: Mid-latitude cyclones: large-scale dynamics (Chair: Margarida Liberato)

16:30-16:50 – João Santos: Are the Winters 2010 and 2012 Archetypes Exhibiting Extreme Opposite Behavior of the North Atlantic Jet Stream?

16:50-17:10 – Leon Hermanson: The ingredients of a stormy European winter: what is the role of the Pacific?

17:10-17:30 – Iñigo Gómara: On the relation between explosive cyclones affecting Europe and the NAO

17:30-17:50 – Joaquim G. Pinto: Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

17:50-18:10 – Breakout group organization



Tuesday 9 September 2014:

Talks 3: Mid-latitude cyclones: extremes and case studies (Chair: Isabel F. Trigo)

9:00- 9:20 – Piero Lionello: A comprehensive estimate the maximum water level reached during storms at the coast of the Mediterranean Sea in the mid 21st century

9:20- 9:40 – Sebastian Schemm: How moisture modifies the life cycle of an archetypal mid-latitude cyclone

9:40-10:00 – Margarida Belo: An observational study of a Sting Jet in southern Europe

10:00-10:20 – Christoph Gatzen: Derechos in European winter storms

10:20-10:40 – Peter Stucki: Dynamical downscaling as a time machine for weather and impact reconstruction – New perspectives on a severe foehn storm in 1925


10:40-11:20 Coffee/tea and cakes and POSTER session


11:20-12:20 – Breakout group discussions

12:30-14:00 – Lunch


Talks 4: Mid-latitude cyclones: extreme events and impacts on Iberia (Chair: Uwe Ulbrich)

14:00-14:20 – Margarida Liberato: Mid-Latitude North Atlantic Extreme Storms Variability: Diagnosis, Modelling Dynamical Processes and Related Impacts on Iberia (STORMEx)

14:20-14:40 – Alexandre Ramos: Precipitation extreme events in the Iberian Peninsula and its association with Atmospheric Rivers

14:40-15:00 – Raquel Nieto: Moisture sources associated to ARs reaching the IP through a 3D Lagrangian approach

15:00-15:20 – Ricardo Trigo: Large-scale dynamics and impacts of historical storms on Iberia


15:20-15:40Coffee/tea and cakes and POSTER session


Talks 5: Mid-latitude cyclones: climatology and variability (Chair: Margarida Liberato)

15:40-16:00 – Christoph. C. Raible: Non-exponential return time distributions for vorticity extremes explained by fractional Poisson processes

16:00-16:20 – Urs Neu: Representation of extreme storms in ERA-Interim re-analysis

16:20-16:40 – Natalia Tilinina: New view of Arctic cyclone activity form the Arctic System Reanalysis

16:40-17:00 – Lisa Schielicke: Kinematic vorticity number – a tool for estimating circulations and cyclone sizes


17:00-18:00 – Breakout group discussions



Wednesday 10 September 2014:

Talks 6: Mid-latitude cyclones: risk assessment and quantification (Chair: Joaquim G. Pinto)

9:00-9:20 – Alexandros P. Georgiadis: Collaboration between the industry and academia: Building the hazard component for a Catastrophe Model

9:20-9:40 – Christoph Welker: Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

9:40-10:00 – Ivan Kuhnel: Millennium-scale AOGCM simulations and their potential applicability in the modelling of extratropical-cyclone insurance losses

10:00-10:20 – Giovanni Leoncini: Windstorms, catastrophe models and Aspen Re

10:20-10:40 – Ioana M. Dima-West: Comparison of European catastrophe windstorm models


10:40-11:20Coffee/tea and cakes and POSTER session


11:20-12:20 – Breakout groups – reporting back


12:20-12:30 – Conclusions and future workshop



P01 Wataru Yanase : Climatology of polar lows over the Japan Sea

P02 Ray Bell: Reassessing the design criteria of offshore platforms using climate model data

P03 Julia Roberts: Can MOGREPS15 storms be used to inform long term storm climatology?

P04 Piero Lionello: On the cyclones responsible for positive and negative storm surges along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea

P05 Piero Lionello: Further progresses on a consensus view of the Mediterranean storm track as depicted by different cyclone tracking methods

P06 Humberto Barbosa: Satellite observations of Hurricane Bill (2009): links to African easterly waves and precipitation patterns

P07 Josephine Bowler: Evaluating the ability of climate models to represent damaging European Windstorm footprints

P08 Victoria Gil: Detection and Tracking of  Extra-tropical Cyclones in the Mediterranean Region: an intercomparison between different models of CMIP5 project

P09 Niklaus Merz: Behavior of the eddy-driven jet in the North Atlantic during glacial and interglacial winter climate

P10 Gabriele Messori: Large-scale Dynamics of Severe European Windstorms

P11 Inigo Gómara: Rossby wave-breaking analysis of explosive cyclones in the Euro-Atlantic sector

P12 Martina Messmer: Vb-type cyclones and their role in generating extreme precipitation over Central Europe

P13 Maria Tous: How medicanes look on HadGEM3 N512 climate simulations

P14 Natalia Tilinina : Linking ocean turbulent fluxes heat to extratropical cyclone characteristics in midlatitudes

P15 Claudia Volosciuk: The Impact of a Warmer Mediterranean Sea on Central European Summer Flooding

P16 Prabodha Pradhan: Performance of YSU, QNSE and UW PBL schemes on the simulation of extratropical cyclones over North Atlantic Ocean

P17 Juan Ferreira: Relationship between extratropical cyclones intensification  and atmospheric water vapour


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